Falcons vs Panthers — Week 2, 2018
The Falcons took over leading 31-24 with 2:20 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 31, Panthers 24. Falcons won 31-24 — the drive turned it over.
Falcons ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 2:20 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.8% for Falcons. Our model starts at 95.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:20) 26-T.Coleman left guard to ATL 25 for no gain (99-K.Short).
- (2:13) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 26-T.Coleman to ATL 34 for 9 yards (55-D.Mayo).
- (2:08) 26-T.Coleman right guard to ATL 34 for no gain (54-S.Thompson).
- (2:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 54 yards to CAR 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-D.Moore to CAR 16 for 4 yards (28-J.Bethel).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.00 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.10 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.00 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| Outside run | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Inside run | -0.61 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.69 pts |
| Quick out | -1.08 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.10 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.13 pts |
| QB keep | -1.37 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.44 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Play action | -2.84 pts |
| Curl route | -3.20 pts |
| End-around | -5.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.37 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.28 pts |
| Deep post | -9.02 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.16 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.10 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.