Falcons vs Giants — Week 7, 2018
The Falcons took over leading 20-12 with 4:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 23, Giants 20. Falcons won 23-20 — the drive scored.
Falcons ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 4:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.2% for Falcons. Our model starts at 92.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:47) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to ATL 44 for 19 yards (24-E.Apple).
- (3:58) 26-T.Coleman left end pushed ob at ATL 40 for -4 yards (20-J.Jenkins).
- (3:53) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 18-C.Ridley to ATL 45 for 5 yards (24-E.Apple).
- (3:40) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 18-C.Ridley to NYG 45 for 10 yards (24-E.Apple).
- (3:27) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 14-J.Hardy to NYG 36 for 9 yards (52-A.Ogletree).
- (3:15) (Shotgun) 25-I.Smith right guard to NYG 36 for 5 yards (94-D.Tomlinson).
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 81-A.Hooper to NYG 38 for 3 yards (35-C.Riley).
- (2:00) 4-G.Tavecchio 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.24 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.79 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.24 pts |
| Outside run | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| Inside run | -0.62 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.68 pts |
| Quick out | -1.08 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.15 pts |
| QB keep | -1.30 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.42 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Play action | -2.77 pts |
| Curl route | -3.07 pts |
| End-around | -5.04 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.26 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.13 pts |
| Deep post | -8.72 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.90 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.79 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.