Rams vs Lions — Week 13, 2018
The Rams took over leading 23-16 with 2:53 left, 1st & 10 at the Lions 45, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Rams 30, Lions 16. Rams won 30-16 — the drive scored.
Rams ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Near midfield, 2:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.5% for Rams. Our model starts at 96.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:53) 17-R.Woods left tackle to DET 43 for 2 yards (91-A.Robinson).
- (2:49) 30-T.Gurley up the middle to DET 38 for 5 yards (24-N.Lawson; 44-J.Reeves-Maybin).
- (2:44) 30-T.Gurley left end to DET 2 for 36 yards (24-N.Lawson).
- (2:32) 30-T.Gurley up the middle to DET 2 for no gain (27-G.Quin).
- (2:00) 30-T.Gurley right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.87 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.30 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.87 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.51 pts |
| Inside run | -0.66 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.81 pts |
| Quick out | -1.17 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.19 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.21 pts |
| QB keep | -1.51 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.57 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.64 pts |
| Play action | -2.99 pts |
| Curl route | -3.39 pts |
| End-around | -5.37 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.51 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.45 pts |
| Deep post | -9.25 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.34 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.30 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.