Colts vs Eagles — Week 3, 2018
The Colts took over trailing 20-16 with 3:01 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Colts 16, Eagles 20. Eagles won 20-16 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Colts ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 3:01 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.0% for Colts. Our model starts at 24.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:01) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 21-N.Hines to IND 37 for 12 yards (58-J.Hicks).
- (2:45) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete deep middle to 85-E.Ebron.
- (2:40) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 11-R.Grant to PHI 23 for 22 yards (24-C.Graham).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 13-T.Hilton to PHI 15 for 8 yards (31-J.Mills).
- (1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-N.Hines up the middle to PHI 11 for 4 yards (56-C.Long).
- (1:35) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short right to 85-E.Ebron (58-J.Hicks).
- (1:31) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 86-E.Swoope to PHI 4 for 7 yards (58-J.Hicks).
- (1:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short left to 13-T.Hilton.
- (1:19) 12-A.Luck sacked at PHI 20 for -16 yards (96-D.Barnett).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.58 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.24 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.58 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.20 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.17 pts |
| QB keep | +1.03 pts |
| Play action | +0.70 pts |
| Deep post | +0.67 pts |
| Quick out | +0.52 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.42 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.10 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Outside run | -0.69 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.19 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.30 pts |
| Inside run | -1.30 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.53 pts |
| End-around | -1.61 pts |
| Spike it | -2.24 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.