Patriots vs Steelers — Week 15, 2018
The Patriots took over trailing 17-10 with 2:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 10, Steelers 17. Steelers won 17-10 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Patriots ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 2:30 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 9.4% for Patriots. Our model starts at 7.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:30) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 15-C.Hogan. Coverage by 23-Haden.
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman to NE 34 for 9 yards (20-C.Sutton) [91-S.Tuitt].
- (2:03) (No Huddle) 28-J.White right tackle to NE 40 for 6 yards (91-S.Tuitt).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 11-J.Edelman to PIT 31 for 34 yards (42-M.Burnett).
- (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 28-J.White to PIT 22 for 9 yards (21-S.Davis).
- (1:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 28-J.White to PIT 16 for 6 yards (98-V.Williams, 28-M.Hilton).
- (:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White ran ob at PIT 11 for 5 yards.
- (:33) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski [97-C.Heyward].
- (:26) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to 87-R.Gronkowski [97-C.Heyward]. Coverage by 34-Te. Edmunds.
- (:20) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to 11-J.Edelman (42-M.Burnett).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.83 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-0.89 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.83 pts |
| Curl route | +0.80 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.55 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.49 pts |
| QB keep | +0.40 pts |
| Play action | +0.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.24 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.24 pts |
| Quick out | +0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.16 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.00 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.12 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.23 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.25 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.30 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| End-around | -0.81 pts |
| Inside run | -0.82 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.88 pts |
| Spike it | -0.89 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.