Jets vs Dolphins — Week 9, 2018
The Jets took over trailing 13-6 with 4:21 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Jets 6, Dolphins 13. Dolphins won 13-6 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Jets ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 18, 4:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 14.6% for Jets. Our model starts at 11.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:21) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 86-J.Leggett to NYJ 24 for 6 yards (24-T.McTyer; 28-B.McCain). MIA-94-R.Quinn was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
- (3:48) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 81-Q.Enunwa to NYJ 47 for 23 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick; 97-E.Hood).
- (3:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 10-J.Kearse (47-K.Alonso).
- (3:12) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 11-R.Anderson.
- (3:07) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at NYJ 42 for -5 yards (93-A.Spence).
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right intended for 81-Q.Enunwa INTERCEPTED by 22-T.McDonald at MIA 40. 22-T.McDonald to 50 for 10 yards (11-R.Anderson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.49 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.24 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.49 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.29 pts |
| Deep post | +0.27 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.23 pts |
| QB keep | +0.13 pts |
| Play action | +0.03 pts |
| Quick out | -0.09 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.18 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.29 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.75 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.79 pts |
| Outside run | -0.85 pts |
| Inside run | -1.09 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.18 pts |
| End-around | -1.20 pts |
| Spike it | -1.24 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.