Raiders vs Browns — Week 4, 2018
The Raiders took over trailing 42-34 with 4:20 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 42, Browns 42. Tied 42-42 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Raiders ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 25, 4:20 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 9.0% for Raiders. Our model starts at 9.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short middle to 12-M.Bryant (90-E.Ogbah).
- (4:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 12-M.Bryant to CLE 47 for 28 yards (21-D.Ward; 53-J.Schobert).
- (3:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 89-A.Cooper to CLE 42 for 5 yards (38-T.Carrie; 20-B.Boddy-Calhoun).
- (3:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 89-A.Cooper to CLE 11 for 31 yards (26-D.Kindred) [55-G.Avery].
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 89-A.Cooper to CLE 6 for 5 yards (38-T.Carrie, 53-J.Schobert).
- (2:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 12-M.Bryant to CLE 9 for -3 yards (38-T.Carrie).
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 82-J.Nelson (23-D.Randall).
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 89-A.Cooper.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.64 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.01 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.64 pts |
| Deep post | +0.46 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.43 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.41 pts |
| QB keep | +0.35 pts |
| Play action | +0.23 pts |
| Quick out | +0.14 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.10 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.04 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.02 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.28 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.32 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.42 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.79 pts |
| End-around | -0.85 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.87 pts |
| Spike it | -1.01 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.