Bengals vs Panthers — Week 3, 2018
The Bengals took over trailing 28-21 with 4:21 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 21, Panthers 31. Panthers won 31-21 — the drive turnover.
Bengals ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 17, 4:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 14.7% for Bengals. Our model starts at 12.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:21) 14-A.Dalton sacked at CIN 7 for -10 yards (94-E.Obada).
- (3:40) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left intended for 15-J.Ross INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at 50. 26-D.Jackson to 50 for no gain (15-J.Ross).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.37 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-1.35 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.37 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.18 pts |
| Deep post | +0.17 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.10 pts |
| QB keep | -0.02 pts |
| Play action | -0.09 pts |
| Quick out | -0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.26 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.28 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.32 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.42 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.64 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.87 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.92 pts |
| Outside run | -0.98 pts |
| Inside run | -1.22 pts |
| Spike it | -1.29 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.32 pts |
| End-around | -1.35 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.