Cowboys vs Panthers — Week 1, 2018
The Cowboys took over trailing 16-8 with 4:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 8, Panthers 16. Panthers won 16-8 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Cowboys ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 21, 4:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 8.5% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 10.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 11-C.Beasley to DAL 38 for 17 yards (59-L.Kuechly).
- (4:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 15-D.Thompson to DAL 46 for 8 yards (26-D.Jackson).
- (3:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 15-D.Thompson to CAR 48 for 6 yards (26-D.Jackson).
- (3:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 47 for -5 yards (96-W.Horton). Penalty on DAL-71-L.Collins, Offensive Holding, declined.
- (3:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 44 for -8 yards (99-K.Short).
- (2:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 15-D.Thompson [99-K.Short].
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott to CAR 48 for 13 yards (54-S.Thompson; 59-L.Kuechly). CAR-59-L.Kuechly was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 15-D.Thompson [90-J.Peppers].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.61 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.11 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.61 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.41 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.41 pts |
| QB keep | +0.34 pts |
| Deep post | +0.34 pts |
| Play action | +0.19 pts |
| Quick out | +0.12 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.08 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.04 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.35 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.57 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.58 pts |
| Outside run | -0.58 pts |
| Inside run | -0.82 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.91 pts |
| End-around | -0.91 pts |
| Spike it | -1.11 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.