Titans vs Chargers — Week 7, 2018
The Titans took over trailing 20-13 with 4:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 1 timeout in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Titans 19, Chargers 20. Chargers won 20-19 — the drive scored.
Titans ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 11, 4:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 12.4% for Titans. Our model starts at 12.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:55) 33-D.Lewis up the middle to TEN 15 for 4 yards (33-D.James, 93-D.Philon).
- (4:24) 33-D.Lewis left tackle to TEN 20 for 5 yards (93-D.Philon).
- (3:47) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard to TEN 23 for 3 yards (93-D.Philon).
- (3:05) 8-M.Mariota scrambles left end pushed ob at TEN 34 for 11 yards (26-C.Hayward).
- (2:58) 33-D.Lewis right guard to LAC 30 for 36 yards (20-D.King).
- (2:13) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 19-T.Sharpe ran ob at LAC 14 for 16 yards.
- (2:08) 22-D.Henry left tackle to LAC 12 for 2 yards (54-M.Ingram).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard to LAC 8 for 4 yards (94-C.Liuget).
- (1:22) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 19-T.Sharpe to LAC 2 for 6 yards (52-D.Perryman, 37-J.Addae).
- (:47) (Shotgun) 33-D.Lewis left guard to LAC 3 for -1 yards (42-U.Nwosu). TEN-64-J.Kline was injured during the play. His return is Doubtful.
- (:43) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Davis.
- (:40) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota scrambles left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota left guard to LAC 1 for 2 yards (31-A.Phillips; 71-D.Square).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (-0.39 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-1.78 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | -0.39 pts |
| Deep post | -0.45 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.64 pts |
| Play action | -0.72 pts |
| Quick out | -0.80 pts |
| QB keep | -0.80 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.80 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.82 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.86 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.87 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.91 pts |
| Spike it | -1.27 pts |
| Inside run | -1.28 pts |
| Outside run | -1.29 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.32 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.40 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.40 pts |
| End-around | -1.78 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.