Jets vs Bills — Week 14, 2018
The Jets took over trailing 23-20 with 2:25 left, 1st & 10 at their own 39, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Jets 27, Bills 23. Jets won 27-23 — the drive scored.
Jets ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 39, 2:25 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.5% for Jets. Our model starts at 36.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:25) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 25-E.McGuire pushed ob at NYJ 48 for 9 yards (93-T.Murphy). Swing pass, caught at NYJ 37.
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 81-Q.Enunwa. Out-pattern, receiver at BUF 49.
- (2:14) 25-E.McGuire up the middle to BUF 48 for 4 yards (98-S.Lotulelei, 95-K.Williams).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 82-R.Matthews pushed ob at BUF 42 for 6 yards (47-L.Wallace). Caught along sideline at BUF 42.
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-R.Anderson pushed ob at BUF 5 for 37 yards (27-T.White). Caught along sideline at BUF 5. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 25-E.McGuire right guard to BUF 4 for 1 yard (90-S.Lawson).
- (1:43) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 11-R.Anderson. Caught out of bounds, in rear corner of end zone.
- (1:22) 25-E.McGuire right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.94 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.77 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.94 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.60 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.59 pts |
| QB keep | +1.44 pts |
| Play action | +0.92 pts |
| Quick out | +0.77 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.64 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.27 pts |
| Deep post | +0.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.14 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.28 pts |
| Outside run | -0.40 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.25 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.59 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.85 pts |
| End-around | -1.88 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.20 pts |
| Spike it | -2.77 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.