Lions vs Bills — Week 15, 2018
The Lions took over trailing 14-13 with 4:41 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Lions 13, Bills 14. Bills won 14-13 — the drive turned it over.
Lions ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 30, 4:41 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 44.8% for Lions. Our model starts at 48.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:41) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 19-K.Golladay to DET 33 for 3 yards (27-T.White). Flat pass, caught at DET 32.
- (4:07) (Shotgun) 25-T.Riddick up the middle to DET 31 for -2 yards (21-J.Poyer).
- (3:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 87-L.Toilolo to DET 33 for 2 yards (21-J.Poyer). Caught in flat at DET 32, tackled near sideline.
- (2:56) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to BUF 24, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 19-I.McKenzie.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.90 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.58 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.90 pts |
| QB keep | +0.74 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.62 pts |
| Curl route | +0.51 pts |
| Quick out | +0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.07 pts |
| Outside run | -0.10 pts |
| Play action | -0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.20 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.66 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.91 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.40 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.70 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.99 pts |
| Deep post | -2.38 pts |
| End-around | -2.40 pts |
| Spike it | -2.95 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.72 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.58 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.