Bills vs Titans — Week 5, 2018
The Bills took over trailing 12-10 with 4:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Bills 13, Titans 12. Bills won 13-12 — the drive scored.
Bills ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 4:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 44.9% for Bills. Our model starts at 40.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:43) 25-L.McCoy left tackle to BUF 26 for 1 yard (99-J.Casey).
- (4:08) 25-L.McCoy right tackle to BUF 32 for 6 yards (91-D.Morgan).
- (3:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 25-L.McCoy to BUF 45 for 13 yards (28-K.Lewis, 26-L.Ryan). Out-pattern, caught at BUF 33.
- (2:47) 33-C.Ivory right guard to BUF 47 for 2 yards (90-D.Jones).
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 33-C.Ivory right end to TEN 44 for 9 yards (31-K.Byard).
- (2:00) 33-C.Ivory right tackle to TEN 40 for 4 yards (25-A.Jackson, 90-D.Jones).
- (1:45) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-R.McCloud to TEN 33 for 7 yards (98-B.Orakpo). Screen pass, caught at TEN 44. Key block: D.Dawkins.
- (1:36) 33-C.Ivory right guard to TEN 26 for 7 yards (31-K.Byard, 25-A.Jackson).
- (:52) 25-L.McCoy up the middle to TEN 25 for 1 yard (31-K.Byard).
- (:17) 17-J.Allen left guard to TEN 28 for -3 yards (98-B.Orakpo).
- (:03) 4-S.Hauschka 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.92 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.62 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.92 pts |
| QB keep | +0.79 pts |
| Curl route | +0.77 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.72 pts |
| Quick out | +0.24 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.12 pts |
| Play action | +0.07 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.17 pts |
| Outside run | -0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.67 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -1.09 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.24 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Deep post | -1.53 pts |
| End-around | -2.18 pts |
| Spike it | -2.86 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.98 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.62 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.