Steelers vs Browns — Week 1, 2018
The Steelers took over tied at 21 with 4:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 45, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 21, Browns 21. Tied 21-21 — the drive missed field goal.
Steelers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 45, 4:31 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 51.8% for Steelers. Our model starts at 59.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:31) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short right to 84-A.Brown (21-D.Ward).
- (4:27) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 84-A.Brown to CLE 43 for 12 yards (20-B.Boddy-Calhoun).
- (3:50) (Shotgun) 30-J.Conner right guard to CLE 41 for 2 yards (55-G.Avery; 50-C.Smith).
- (3:11) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 81-J.James to CLE 31 for 10 yards (53-J.Schobert).
- (2:27) 30-J.Conner left guard to CLE 28 for 3 yards (95-M.Garrett).
- (2:00) 30-J.Conner right guard to CLE 30 for -2 yards (50-C.Smith; 26-D.Kindred).
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 30-J.Conner to CLE 24 for 6 yards (53-J.Schobert).
- (1:47) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.89 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.14 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.84 pts |
| QB keep | +0.63 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.45 pts |
| Outside run | +0.27 pts |
| Quick out | +0.13 pts |
| Curl route | +0.07 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.21 pts |
| Play action | -0.42 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.57 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.18 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.34 pts |
| End-around | -2.66 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.75 pts |
| Spike it | -2.84 pts |
| Deep post | -3.61 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.74 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.89 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.