Ravens vs Saints — Week 7, 2018
The Ravens took over trailing 21-17 with 4:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 14, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 23, Saints 24. Saints won 24-23 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Ravens ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 14, 4:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 29.5% for Ravens. Our model starts at 26.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:49) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep left to 15-M.Crabtree.
- (4:44) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 13-J.Brown ran ob at BAL 47 for 17 yards.
- (4:38) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 37-J.Allen to 50 for 3 yards (93-D.Onyemata).
- (4:01) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short right. Flacco throws ball away to avoid sack.
- (3:52) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 10-C.Moore (23-M.Lattimore).
- (3:41) 34-A.Collins right tackle pushed ob at NO 36 for 4 yards (47-A.Anzalone).
- (3:35) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep middle to 81-H.Hurst (20-K.Crawley).
- (3:30) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 83-W.Snead IV.
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short left to 83-W.Snead IV [57-A.Okafor].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (-0.26 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-2.68 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | -0.26 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.33 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.47 pts |
| QB keep | -0.70 pts |
| Play action | -0.82 pts |
| Quick out | -0.98 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.03 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.04 pts |
| Deep post | -1.10 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.33 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.47 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.48 pts |
| Outside run | -1.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.92 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.21 pts |
| Spike it | -2.30 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.54 pts |
| End-around | -2.63 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.68 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.