Eagles vs Cowboys — Week 14, 2018
The Eagles took over trailing 23-16 with 3:01 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
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What really happened
Final: Eagles 23, Cowboys 23. Tied 23-23 — the drive scored.
Eagles ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 3:01 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 11.7% for Eagles. Our model starts at 9.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:01) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep right to 17-A.Jeffery.
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 17-A.Jeffery pushed ob at PHI 42 for 12 yards (24-C.Awuzie).
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert to DAL 44 for 9 yards (54-J.Smith).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 13-N.Agholor ran ob at DAL 2 for 42 yards.
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to DAL 6 for -4 yards (54-J.Smith).
- (1:45) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 43-D.Sproles for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.88 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.09 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.88 pts |
| Deep post | +0.80 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.60 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.55 pts |
| QB keep | +0.46 pts |
| Play action | +0.36 pts |
| Quick out | +0.22 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.20 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.27 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.28 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.35 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.38 pts |
| Outside run | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.93 pts |
| End-around | -0.96 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.01 pts |
| Spike it | -1.09 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.