Texans vs Bills — Week 6, 2018
The Texans took over trailing 13-10 with 3:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 8, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Texans 20, Bills 13. Texans won 20-13 — the drive scored.
Texans ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Backed up at their own 8, 3:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.7% for Texans. Our model starts at 30.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:55) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 84-R.Griffin [93-T.Murphy].
- (3:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 15-W.Fuller ran ob at HOU 25 for 17 yards.
- (3:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 19 for -6 yards (55-J.Hughes). FUMBLES (55-J.Hughes) [55-J.Hughes], recovered by HOU-28-A.Blue at HOU 20. 28-A.Blue to HOU 20 for no gain (49-T.Edmunds).
- (2:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to HOU 44 for 24 yards (21-J.Poyer).
- (2:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 28-A.Blue pushed ob at BUF 42 for 14 yards (90-S.Lawson).
- (1:59) 28-A.Blue right guard to BUF 2 for -1 yards (21-J.Poyer, 55-J.Hughes).
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 16-K.Coutee to BUF 3 for -1 yards (58-M.Milano; 28-P.Gaines).
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 84-R.Griffin (58-M.Milano).
- (1:37) 7-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-1.13 pts), and the weakest was Receiver pass (-3.64 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -1.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.41 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.41 pts |
| Curl route | -1.48 pts |
| QB keep | -1.52 pts |
| Quick out | -1.52 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.57 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.62 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.73 pts |
| Deep post | -1.88 pts |
| Play action | -2.00 pts |
| Outside run | -2.07 pts |
| Inside run | -2.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.24 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.43 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.45 pts |
| Spike it | -2.51 pts |
| End-around | -3.46 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.61 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.64 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.