Packers vs Cardinals — Week 13, 2018
The Packers took over trailing 20-17 with 1:41 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Packers 17, Cardinals 20. Cardinals won 20-17 — the drive missed field goal.
Packers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 1:41 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.3% for Packers. Our model starts at 26.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:41) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-J.Graham to GB 30 for 5 yards (51-G.Hodges).
- (1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling.
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling.
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 80-J.Graham to GB 37 for 7 yards (43-H.Reddick).
- (:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams to GB 44 for 7 yards (41-A.Bethea).
- (:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 85-R.Tonyan pushed ob at GB 49 for 5 yards (41-A.Bethea).
- (:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Adams.
- (:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles right end pushed ob at ARI 40 for 11 yards (36-B.Baker).
- (:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 80-J.Graham.
- (:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb to ARI 31 for 9 yards (33-T.Boston).
- (:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling.
- (:03) 2-M.Crosby 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.13 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.36 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.65 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.55 pts |
| QB keep | +1.39 pts |
| Deep post | +1.25 pts |
| Play action | +1.09 pts |
| Quick out | +0.79 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.67 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.42 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.36 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.31 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.96 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.02 pts |
| Inside run | -1.34 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.58 pts |
| End-around | -1.58 pts |
| Spike it | -2.36 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.