Patriots vs Dolphins — Week 14, 2018
The Patriots took over leading 30-28 with 4:26 left, 1st & 10 at their own 27, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 33, Dolphins 34. Dolphins won 34-33 — the drive scored.
Patriots ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 27, 4:26 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 73.0% for Patriots. Our model starts at 69.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:26) 26-S.Michel left guard to NE 35 for 3 yards (47-K.Alonso).
- (3:49) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Edelman (24-T.McTyer).
- (3:44) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 11-J.Edelman to NE 39 for 4 yards (20-R.Jones).
- (2:53) (Shotgun) 28-J.White up the middle to NE 40 for 11 yards (24-T.McTyer).
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 10-J.Gordon to MIA 48 for 12 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 28-J.White up the middle to MIA 48 for no gain (47-K.Alonso).
- (1:50) 68-L.Waddle reported in as eligible. 28-J.White up the middle to MIA 6 for 1 yard (93-A.Spence).
- (1:46) 26-S.Michel left guard to MIA 6 for no gain (52-R.McMillan).
- (1:05) 26-S.Michel right tackle to MIA 4 for 2 yards (47-K.Alonso).
- (:21) 3-S.Gostkowski 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.33 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.48 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.33 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.45 pts |
| QB keep | +0.14 pts |
| Outside run | +0.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.07 pts |
| Quick out | -0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.30 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.49 pts |
| Inside run | -0.59 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Curl route | -0.80 pts |
| Play action | -1.09 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.26 pts |
| End-around | -3.38 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.80 pts |
| Deep post | -5.21 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.06 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.48 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.