Ravens vs Chiefs — Week 14, 2018
The Ravens took over tied at 17 with 4:58 left, 1st & 10 at the Chiefs 14, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 24, Chiefs 24. Tied 24-24 — the drive scored.
Ravens ball, even score — any score wins it. At the Chiefs 14, 4:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 66.9% for Ravens. Our model starts at 74.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:58) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards up the middle to KC 11 for 3 yards (91-D.Nnadi; 97-A.Bailey).
- (4:15) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left end pushed ob at KC 9 for 2 yards (20-S.Nelson).
- (4:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 13-J.Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Field goal (+4.53 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.88 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Field goal | +4.53 pts |
| Take a knee | +2.09 pts |
| Outside run | +0.38 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.34 pts |
| QB keep | +0.01 pts |
| Quick out | -0.26 pts |
| Inside run | -0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.35 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.46 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.05 pts |
| Play action | -1.40 pts |
| Curl route | -1.55 pts |
| Spike it | -2.20 pts |
| End-around | -3.39 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.17 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.79 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.92 pts |
| Deep post | -7.23 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.88 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.