Texans vs Commanders — Week 11, 2018
The Texans took over leading 23-21 with 4:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 42, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Texans 23, Commanders 21. Texans won 23-21 — the drive missed field goal.
Texans ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 42, 4:38 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 73.8% for Texans. Our model starts at 73.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:38) 26-L.Miller left tackle to HOU 45 for 3 yards (98-M.Ioannidis; 95-D.Payne).
- (3:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 87-De.Thomas.
- (3:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 26-L.Miller to WAS 42 for 13 yards (20-H.Clinton-Dix).
- (3:05) 26-L.Miller left end to WAS 41 for 1 yard (94-P.Smith; 52-R.Anderson).
- (2:22) 26-L.Miller right end to WAS 37 for 4 yards (93-J.Allen).
- (1:51) 26-L.Miller left end to WAS 32 for no gain (95-D.Payne).
- (1:46) 26-L.Miller left end to WAS 29 for 3 yards (94-P.Smith; 95-D.Payne).
- (1:41) 26-L.Miller right end to WAS 27 for 2 yards (94-P.Smith).
- (:56) 7-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.63 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.05 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.63 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.29 pts |
| Outside run | +0.17 pts |
| QB keep | -0.06 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.27 pts |
| Quick out | -0.32 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.50 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.56 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Curl route | -1.16 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.26 pts |
| Play action | -1.34 pts |
| End-around | -3.57 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.60 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.19 pts |
| Deep post | -5.82 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.53 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.05 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.