Colts vs Texans — Week 14, 2018
The Colts took over leading 24-21 with 2:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Colts 24, Texans 21. Colts won 24-21 — the drive time expired.
Colts ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 22, 2:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 76.7% for Colts. Our model starts at 79.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 14-Z.Pascal to IND 34 for 12 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 13-T.Hilton to IND 45 for 6 yards (43-S.Wright).
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack up the middle to IND 48 for 3 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).
- (2:00) 12-A.Luck kneels to HOU 48 for -1 yards.
- (1:18) 12-A.Luck kneels to HOU 49 for -1 yards.
- (:36) 12-A.Luck kneels to 50 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.53 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.50 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.53 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.46 pts |
| Outside run | +0.29 pts |
| QB keep | +0.04 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.12 pts |
| Quick out | -0.18 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.27 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| Inside run | -0.36 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Curl route | -1.13 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.18 pts |
| Play action | -1.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.67 pts |
| End-around | -3.73 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.33 pts |
| Deep post | -6.16 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.86 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.50 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.