Rams vs Seahawks — Week 5, 2018
The Rams took over leading 33-31 with 3:28 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Rams 33, Seahawks 31. Rams won 33-31 — the drive time expired.
Rams ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 21, 3:28 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 71.7% for Rams. Our model starts at 66.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:28) 30-T.Gurley right tackle to LA 33 for 12 yards (33-T.Thompson).
- (2:42) 30-T.Gurley left tackle to LA 35 for 2 yards (90-J.Reed; 98-S.Stephen).
- (2:00) 30-T.Gurley left end to LA 42 for 7 yards (30-B.McDougald).
- (1:52) 30-T.Gurley left guard to LA 42 for no gain (33-T.Thompson). Official measurement.
- (1:39) 16-J.Goff up the middle to LA 44 for 2 yards (51-B.Mingo).
- (1:06) 16-J.Goff kneels to LA 43 for -1 yards.
- (:26) 16-J.Goff kneels to LA 42 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.31 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.75 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.31 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.85 pts |
| QB keep | +0.57 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.41 pts |
| Outside run | +0.37 pts |
| Quick out | +0.13 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.01 pts |
| Curl route | -0.16 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.21 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| Inside run | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Play action | -0.58 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.15 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.71 pts |
| End-around | -2.98 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.20 pts |
| Deep post | -4.37 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.42 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.75 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.