Chargers vs Broncos — Week 11, 2018
The Chargers took over leading 22-20 with 3:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 22, Broncos 23. Broncos won 23-22 — the drive turned it over.
Chargers ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 20, 3:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 76.9% for Chargers. Our model starts at 68.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:45) 28-M.Gordon up the middle to LAC 23 for 3 yards (47-J.Jewell).
- (3:38) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 88-V.Green to LAC 24 for 1 yard (26-D.Stewart).
- (3:33) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 85-A.Gates to LAC 49 for 25 yards (31-J.Simmons).
- (2:44) 28-M.Gordon right tackle to DEN 44 for 7 yards (96-S.Harris, 31-J.Simmons).
- (2:39) 17-P.Rivers up the middle to DEN 48 for -4 yards (55-B.Chubb).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen.
- (1:58) 5-D.Jones punts 40 yards to DEN 8, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 11-R.Cracraft.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.62 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.03 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.62 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.70 pts |
| QB keep | +0.41 pts |
| Outside run | +0.24 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.23 pts |
| Quick out | +0.01 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.32 pts |
| Curl route | -0.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| Inside run | -0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Play action | -0.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.24 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.91 pts |
| End-around | -3.16 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.42 pts |
| Deep post | -4.68 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.66 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.03 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.