Chargers vs Bengals — Week 14, 2018
The Chargers took over leading 23-21 with 1:50 left, 1st & 10 at the Bengals 34, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 26, Bengals 21. Chargers won 26-21 — the drive scored.
Chargers ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. In Bengals territory, 1:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.2% for Chargers. Our model starts at 88.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:50) 32-J.Jackson up the middle to CIN 31 for 3 yards (90-M.Johnson).
- (1:45) 32-J.Jackson up the middle to CIN 29 for 2 yards (36-S.Williams).
- (1:41) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers right end to CIN 27 for 2 yards (96-C.Dunlap).
- (:54) 4-M.Badgley 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.27 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.84 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.27 pts |
| Outside run | -0.01 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Inside run | -0.45 pts |
| Quick out | -0.55 pts |
| QB keep | -0.57 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.61 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.69 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.70 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
| Play action | -1.99 pts |
| Curl route | -2.08 pts |
| Field goal | -4.30 pts |
| End-around | -4.47 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.48 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.28 pts |
| Deep post | -7.60 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.02 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.84 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.