Rams vs Vikings — Week 4, 2018
The Rams took over leading 38-31 with 3:46 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Rams 38, Vikings 31. Rams won 38-31 — the drive turned it over.
Rams ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 3:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.0% for Rams. Our model starts at 92.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:46) 30-T.Gurley left end to LA 28 for 3 yards (27-J.Kearse).
- (2:59) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 30-T.Gurley [93-S.Richardson].
- (2:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-R.Woods to LA 34 for 6 yards (98-L.Joseph; 93-S.Richardson).
- (2:30) 6-J.Hekker punts 32 yards to MIN 34, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-24-B.Countess.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.28 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.73 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.28 pts |
| Outside run | -0.29 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -0.55 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.58 pts |
| Quick out | -0.99 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.06 pts |
| QB keep | -1.20 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.31 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Play action | -2.66 pts |
| Curl route | -2.96 pts |
| End-around | -4.97 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.17 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.04 pts |
| Deep post | -8.64 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.83 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.73 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.