Rams vs Packers — Week 8, 2018
The Rams took over leading 29-27 with 1:56 left, 1st & 10 at the Packers 21, 1 timeout in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Rams 29, Packers 27. Rams won 29-27 — the drive time expired.
Rams ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. In Packers territory, 1:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.6% for Rams. Our model starts at 89.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:56) 30-T.Gurley left guard to GB 19 for 2 yards (52-C.Matthews).
- (1:50) 83-J.Reynolds left end to GB 21 for -2 yards (93-R.Gilbert).
- (1:05) 30-T.Gurley left end to GB 4 for 17 yards (38-T.Williams).
- (:19) 16-J.Goff kneels to GB 5 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.30 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.30 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.30 pts |
| Field goal | +0.35 pts |
| Outside run | -0.05 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Inside run | -0.44 pts |
| Quick out | -0.64 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.70 pts |
| QB keep | -0.71 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.77 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.83 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.36 pts |
| Play action | -2.15 pts |
| Curl route | -2.29 pts |
| End-around | -4.59 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.65 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.47 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.23 pts |
| Deep post | -8.35 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.30 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.