Patriots vs Bears — Week 7, 2018
The Patriots took over leading 38-31 with 4:05 left, 1st & 10 at their own 41, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 38, Bears 31. Patriots won 38-31 — the drive turned it over.
Patriots ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 41, 4:05 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.1% for Patriots. Our model starts at 93.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:05) (Shotgun) 28-J.White left tackle to NE 46 for 5 yards (59-D.Trevathan).
- (3:28) (Shotgun) 28-J.White left tackle to 50 for 4 yards (91-E.Goldman).
- (2:52) 28-J.White left tackle to CHI 48 for 2 yards (38-A.Amos).
- (2:45) 28-J.White right end to CHI 40 for 8 yards (98-B.Nichols).
- (2:37) 28-J.White right tackle to CHI 37 for 3 yards (94-L.Floyd).
- (2:30) 28-J.White left tackle to CHI 35 for 2 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).
- (2:00) 28-J.White right end to CHI 33 for 2 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).
- (1:16) 28-J.White left end to CHI 33 for no gain (20-P.Amukamara).
- (:30) 6-R.Allen punts 33 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.21 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.88 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.21 pts |
| Outside run | -0.35 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -0.58 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.66 pts |
| Quick out | -1.06 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.09 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.12 pts |
| QB keep | -1.30 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.40 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.53 pts |
| Play action | -2.77 pts |
| Curl route | -3.09 pts |
| End-around | -5.07 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.16 pts |
| Deep post | -8.81 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.97 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.88 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.