Commanders vs Cowboys — Week 7, 2018
The Commanders took over leading 20-17 with 1:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 20, Cowboys 17. Commanders won 20-17 — the drive turned it over.
Commanders ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 25, 1:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.4% for Commanders. Our model starts at 82.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:37) 26-A.Peterson right end to WAS 24 for -1 yards (90-D.Lawrence; 57-D.Wilson).
- (1:32) (Shotgun) 26-A.Peterson right end to WAS 26 for 2 yards (50-S.Lee).
- (1:26) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith scrambles left end pushed ob at WAS 32 for 6 yards (50-S.Lee).
- (1:18) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to DAL 31, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 36 for 5 yards (52-R.Anderson; 48-K.Ladler).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.41 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.80 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.41 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.46 pts |
| Outside run | +0.27 pts |
| QB keep | -0.00 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.14 pts |
| Quick out | -0.18 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.27 pts |
| Inside run | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.40 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.18 pts |
| Curl route | -1.24 pts |
| Play action | -1.36 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.79 pts |
| End-around | -3.88 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.48 pts |
| Deep post | -6.45 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.10 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.80 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.