Rams vs Seahawks — Week 10, 2018
The Rams took over leading 36-31 with 1:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Rams 36, Seahawks 31. Rams won 36-31 — the drive turned it over.
Rams ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 1:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.6% for Rams. Our model starts at 90.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:51) 17-R.Woods right end to LA 19 for -6 yards (90-J.Reed).
- (1:46) 30-T.Gurley left end to LA 26 for 7 yards (30-B.McDougald).
- (1:39) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 12-B.Cooks to LA 29 for 8 yards (26-LA.Griffin).
- (1:35) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to SEA 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 25 for 9 yards (52-R.Wilson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.36 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.32 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.36 pts |
| Outside run | -0.09 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Inside run | -0.44 pts |
| Quick out | -0.74 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.78 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.84 pts |
| QB keep | -0.86 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.97 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.36 pts |
| Play action | -2.30 pts |
| Curl route | -2.50 pts |
| End-around | -4.70 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.82 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.66 pts |
| Deep post | -8.15 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.44 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.32 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.