Broncos vs Raiders — Week 2, 2018
The Broncos took over trailing 19-17 with 1:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 20, Raiders 19. Broncos won 20-19 — the drive scored.
Broncos ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 20, 1:58 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 35.5% for Broncos. Our model starts at 32.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass incomplete short right to 88-De.Thomas (22-R.Melvin).
- (1:47) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 10-E.Sanders to DEN 31 for 21 yards (29-L.Hall).
- (1:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass incomplete deep right to 88-De.Thomas (22-R.Melvin).
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 80-J.Butt to DEN 45 for 14 yards (21-G.Conley; 31-M.Gilchrist).
- (:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton [51-B.Irvin].
- (:54) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum scrambles right end to LV 48 for 7 yards (59-T.Whitehead).
- (:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 82-J.Heuerman pushed ob at LV 44 for 4 yards (59-T.Whitehead).
- (:22) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass incomplete short right to 88-De.Thomas.
- (:18) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 81-T.Patrick ran ob at LV 18 for 26 yards (27-R.Nelson).
- (:10) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.11 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.62 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.11 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.69 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.65 pts |
| QB keep | +1.49 pts |
| Play action | +1.07 pts |
| Quick out | +0.83 pts |
| Deep post | +0.73 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.70 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.15 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| Outside run | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Inside run | -1.20 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.42 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| End-around | -1.65 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.66 pts |
| Spike it | -2.62 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.