Panthers vs Buccaneers — Week 13, 2018
The Panthers took over trailing 24-17 with 4:07 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 17, Buccaneers 24. Buccaneers won 24-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Panthers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 21, 4:07 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.2% for Panthers. Our model starts at 12.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:07) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at CAR 26 for 5 yards (53-A.Taylor).
- (4:02) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle to CAR 31 for 5 yards (35-J.Elliott, 54-L.David).
- (3:34) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 80-I.Thomas ran ob at TB 49 for 20 yards.
- (3:27) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey to TB 44 for 5 yards (54-L.David).
- (2:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Funchess (53-A.Taylor).
- (2:51) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton sacked at TB 48 for -4 yards (90-J.Pierre-Paul).
- (2:25) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep middle to 17-D.Funchess.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.81 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.27 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.81 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.55 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.53 pts |
| Deep post | +0.53 pts |
| QB keep | +0.45 pts |
| Play action | +0.29 pts |
| Quick out | +0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.03 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.58 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.61 pts |
| Outside run | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.96 pts |
| End-around | -1.05 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.06 pts |
| Spike it | -1.27 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.