Panthers vs Commanders — Week 6, 2018
The Panthers took over trailing 23-17 with 3:11 left, 1st & 10 at their own 16, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 17, Commanders 23. Commanders won 23-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Panthers ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 16, 3:11 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.4% for Panthers. Our model starts at 13.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:11) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 31 for 15 yards (35-M.Nicholson; 23-Q.Dunbar).
- (2:32) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 13-J.Wright pushed ob at CAR 34 for 3 yards (53-Z.Brown).
- (2:26) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 88-G.Olsen to WAS 48 for 18 yards (36-D.Swearinger). .
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 88-G.Olsen ran ob at WAS 39 for 9 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 88-G.Olsen.
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 12-D.Moore to WAS 33 for 15 yards (40-J.Harvey-Clemons).
- (1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey ran ob at WAS 33 for no gain.
- (1:28) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 11-T.Smith ran ob at WAS 24 for 9 yards.
- (1:23) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton up the middle to WAS 21 for 3 yards (40-J.Harvey-Clemons).
- (:54) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 22-C.McCaffrey to WAS 16 for 5 yards (40-J.Harvey-Clemons; 54-M.Foster).
- (:47) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep left to 22-C.McCaffrey.
- (:42) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Funchess.
- (:38) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 13-J.Wright. PENALTY on WAS-36-D.Swearinger, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 8 yards, enforced between downs.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.41 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-1.62 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.41 pts |
| Deep post | +0.35 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.18 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.02 pts |
| Play action | -0.14 pts |
| QB keep | -0.14 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.30 pts |
| Quick out | -0.35 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.40 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.57 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.74 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.81 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.87 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.00 pts |
| Outside run | -1.25 pts |
| Spike it | -1.39 pts |
| Inside run | -1.51 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.60 pts |
| End-around | -1.62 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.