Giants vs Panthers — Week 5, 2018
The Giants took over trailing 30-24 with 2:16 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Giants 31, Panthers 33. Panthers won 33-31 — the drive scored.
Giants ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 2:16 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 16.2% for Giants. Our model starts at 10.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 81-R.Shepard to NYG 33 for 8 yards (26-D.Jackson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 85-R.Ellison to NYG 45 for 12 yards (59-L.Kuechly).
- (1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 81-R.Shepard for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 81-R.Shepard to CAR 15 for 40 yards (26-D.Jackson).
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 26-S.Barkley for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.07 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.15 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.07 pts |
| Deep post | +1.04 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.75 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.67 pts |
| QB keep | +0.57 pts |
| Play action | +0.48 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.33 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.32 pts |
| Quick out | +0.30 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.25 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.04 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.17 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.27 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.30 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.36 pts |
| Outside run | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -0.97 pts |
| End-around | -0.97 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.05 pts |
| Spike it | -1.15 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.