Packers vs Bears — Week 1, 2018
The Packers took over trailing 23-17 with 2:39 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Packers 24, Bears 23. Packers won 24-23 — the drive scored.
Packers ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 2:39 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.0% for Packers. Our model starts at 11.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams.
- (2:36) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 81-G.Allison.
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.07 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.23 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.07 pts |
| Deep post | +0.97 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.75 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.68 pts |
| QB keep | +0.58 pts |
| Play action | +0.47 pts |
| Quick out | +0.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.28 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.27 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.24 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.03 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.27 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.38 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.39 pts |
| Outside run | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.99 pts |
| End-around | -1.01 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.08 pts |
| Spike it | -1.23 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.