Eagles vs Cowboys — Week 10, 2018
The Eagles took over trailing 27-20 with 3:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 20, Cowboys 27. Cowboys won 27-20 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Eagles ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 30, 3:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 16.9% for Eagles. Our model starts at 11.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 17-A.Jeffery pushed ob at PHI 47 for 17 yards (31-B.Jones).
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 28-W.Smallwood pushed ob at DAL 44 for 9 yards (38-J.Heath).
- (3:04) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 19-G.Tate to DAL 38 for 6 yards (99-A.Woods).
- (2:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 28-W.Smallwood pushed ob at DAL 35 for 3 yards (55-L.Vander Esch).
- (2:24) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz scrambles right end to DAL 30 for 5 yards.
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 30-C.Clement to DAL 35 for -5 yards (55-L.Vander Esch).
- (1:17) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to DAL 29 for 6 yards (38-J.Heath). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.99 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.27 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.99 pts |
| Deep post | +0.81 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.69 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.63 pts |
| QB keep | +0.53 pts |
| Play action | +0.40 pts |
| Quick out | +0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.18 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.40 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.49 pts |
| Outside run | -0.74 pts |
| Inside run | -1.03 pts |
| End-around | -1.08 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.13 pts |
| Spike it | -1.27 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.