Falcons vs Cowboys — Week 11, 2018
The Falcons took over trailing 19-12 with 4:02 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 19, Cowboys 22. Cowboys won 22-19 — the drive scored.
Falcons ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 32, 4:02 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.1% for Falcons. Our model starts at 14.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:02) 26-T.Coleman left tackle to ATL 45 for 13 yards (25-X.Woods).
- (3:27) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 18-C.Ridley ran ob at DAL 49 for 6 yards (24-C.Awuzie).
- (3:23) (Shotgun) 26-T.Coleman right end to ATL 46 for -5 yards (96-M.Collins).
- (2:45) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 12-M.Sanu to DAL 43 for 11 yards (30-A.Brown).
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 25-I.Smith to DAL 34 for 9 yards (38-J.Heath).
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 11-J.Jones for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.96 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.46 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.96 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.67 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.65 pts |
| Deep post | +0.59 pts |
| QB keep | +0.55 pts |
| Play action | +0.37 pts |
| Quick out | +0.24 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.18 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.05 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.02 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.68 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.70 pts |
| Outside run | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -1.04 pts |
| End-around | -1.16 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.16 pts |
| Spike it | -1.46 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.