Ravens vs Bengals — Week 11, 2018
The Ravens took over leading 24-21 with 3:59 left, 1st & 10 at their own 42, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 24, Bengals 21. Ravens won 24-21 — the drive turned it over.
Ravens ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 42, 3:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 81.3% for Ravens. Our model starts at 80.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:59) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles right end pushed ob at BAL 44 for 2 yards (36-S.Williams).
- (3:52) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right tackle to BAL 48 for 4 yards (21-D.Dennard).
- (3:45) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left end to CIN 49 for 3 yards (56-H.Nickerson).
- (2:58) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to CIN 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 19 for 8 yards (54-T.Bowser; 48-P.Onwuasor). PENALTY on CIN-88-J.Franks, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at CIN 19.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.77 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.84 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.77 pts |
| Outside run | +0.20 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.16 pts |
| QB keep | -0.26 pts |
| Inside run | -0.39 pts |
| Quick out | -0.41 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.45 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.49 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.61 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.21 pts |
| Curl route | -1.56 pts |
| Play action | -1.61 pts |
| End-around | -3.88 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.99 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.67 pts |
| Deep post | -6.60 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.18 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.84 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.