Patriots vs Chiefs — Week 6, 2018
The Patriots took over leading 37-33 with 3:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 43, Chiefs 40. Patriots won 43-40 — the drive scored.
Patriots ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 21, 3:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 79.5% for Patriots. Our model starts at 81.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:50) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski pushed ob at KC 37 for 42 yards (59-R.Ragland).
- (3:39) 26-S.Michel left guard to KC 36 for 1 yard (91-D.Nnadi).
- (3:30) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 10-J.Gordon to KC 32 for 4 yards (20-S.Nelson).
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 11-J.Edelman.
- (3:19) 3-S.Gostkowski 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 400th career FGA, 30th all-time.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.64 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.64 pts |
| Outside run | +0.12 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.09 pts |
| QB keep | -0.35 pts |
| Inside run | -0.45 pts |
| Quick out | -0.47 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.50 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.53 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.55 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.67 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.28 pts |
| Curl route | -1.67 pts |
| Play action | -1.71 pts |
| End-around | -4.01 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.10 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.79 pts |
| Deep post | -6.77 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.32 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.