Eagles vs Panthers — Week 7, 2018
The Eagles took over leading 17-14 with 4:02 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 17, Panthers 21. Panthers won 21-17 — the drive turned it over.
Eagles ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:02 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.8% for Eagles. Our model starts at 76.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:02) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 13-N.Agholor to PHI 27 for 2 yards (25-E.Reid).
- (3:16) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 28-W.Smallwood to PHI 25 for -2 yards (59-L.Kuechly) [94-E.Obada].
- (2:32) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep right to 17-A.Jeffery (24-J.Bradberry).
- (2:28) 1-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to CAR 22, Center-45-R.Lovato. 18-D.Byrd to CAR 31 for 9 yards (37-T.Sullivan).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.56 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.31 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.56 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.29 pts |
| Outside run | +0.16 pts |
| QB keep | -0.09 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.28 pts |
| Quick out | -0.32 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.56 pts |
| Curl route | -1.24 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.27 pts |
| Play action | -1.39 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.70 pts |
| End-around | -3.70 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.33 pts |
| Deep post | -6.05 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.75 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.31 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.