Lions vs Panthers — Week 11, 2018
The Lions took over leading 20-13 with 4:28 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Lions 20, Panthers 19. Lions won 20-19 — the drive turned it over.
Lions ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 21, 4:28 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.8% for Lions. Our model starts at 90.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:28) 29-L.Blount up the middle to DET 25 for 4 yards (29-M.Adams; 91-B.Cox).
- (3:44) 29-L.Blount left end to DET 21 for -4 yards (59-L.Kuechly).
- (3:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-B.Ellington to DET 23 for 2 yards (58-T.Davis).
- (2:58) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to CAR 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.36 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.51 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.36 pts |
| Outside run | -0.27 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.49 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.55 pts |
| Inside run | -0.57 pts |
| Quick out | -0.97 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.06 pts |
| QB keep | -1.14 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.27 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Play action | -2.59 pts |
| Curl route | -2.84 pts |
| End-around | -4.86 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.07 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.91 pts |
| Deep post | -8.41 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.65 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.51 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.