Saints vs Giants — Week 4, 2018
The Saints took over leading 26-18 with 3:40 left, 1st & 10 at their own 3, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Saints 33, Giants 18. Saints won 33-18 — the drive scored.
Saints ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Backed up at their own 3, 3:40 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.9% for Saints. Our model starts at 94.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:40) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 89-J.Hill to NO 24 for 21 yards (23-B.Webb, 93-B.Goodson).
- (2:50) 41-A.Kamara right guard to NO 26 for 2 yards (21-L.Collins, 94-D.Tomlinson).
- (2:45) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short left to 41-A.Kamara [96-K.Martin].
- (2:30) 41-A.Kamara left end pushed ob at NO 49 for 9 yards (35-C.Riley, 59-L.Carter).
- (2:24) 41-A.Kamara left guard to NYG 49 for 2 yards (59-L.Carter).
- (2:16) 41-A.Kamara right guard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.19 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.32 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.19 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.65 pts |
| Outside run | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -0.77 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.18 pts |
| Quick out | -1.47 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.48 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.49 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.73 pts |
| QB keep | -1.84 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.99 pts |
| Play action | -3.35 pts |
| Curl route | -3.83 pts |
| End-around | -5.46 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.77 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.69 pts |
| Deep post | -9.26 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.52 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.32 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.