Dolphins vs Bengals — Week 5, 2018
The Dolphins took over trailing 20-17 with 3:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 17, Bengals 27. Bengals won 27-17 — the drive turnover.
Dolphins ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 3:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.7% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 32.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:30) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 32-K.Drake to MIA 23 for -2 yards (27-D.Kirkpatrick).
- (2:50) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short left to 32-K.Drake [58-C.Lawson].
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at MIA 18 for 0 yards (96-C.Dunlap). FUMBLES (96-C.Dunlap) [96-C.Dunlap], RECOVERED by CIN-94-S.Hubbard at MIA 19. 94-S.Hubbard for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-70-J.James, Offensive Holding, declined.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.45 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.63 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.45 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.22 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.17 pts |
| QB keep | +1.08 pts |
| Play action | +0.58 pts |
| Quick out | +0.51 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.39 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.06 pts |
| Deep post | -0.10 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.39 pts |
| Outside run | -0.51 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.52 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -1.24 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.55 pts |
| End-around | -1.85 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.91 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.24 pts |
| Spike it | -2.63 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.