Patriots vs Eagles — Week 21, 2017
The Patriots took over trailing 38-33 with 2:21 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Eagles.
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What really happened
Final: Patriots 33, Eagles 41. Eagles won 41-33 — the drive turnover.
Playoff football. Patriots ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 2:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.0% for Patriots. Our model starts at 15.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 87-R.Gronkowski pushed ob at NE 33 for 8 yards (53-N.Bradham).
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at NE 26 for -7 yards (55-B.Graham). FUMBLES (55-B.Graham) [55-B.Graham], RECOVERED by PHI-96-D.Barnett at NE 28. 96-D.Barnett to NE 31 for -3 yards (60-D.Andrews).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.42 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.60 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.42 pts |
| Deep post | +1.17 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.03 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.94 pts |
| QB keep | +0.81 pts |
| Play action | +0.66 pts |
| Quick out | +0.44 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.36 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.36 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.34 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.09 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.33 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.52 pts |
| Outside run | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -1.17 pts |
| End-around | -1.23 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.30 pts |
| Spike it | -1.60 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.