Giants vs Commanders — Week 12, 2017
The Giants took over trailing 17-10 with 3:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Giants 10, Commanders 20. Commanders won 20-10 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Giants ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 3:31 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.4% for Giants. Our model starts at 11.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:31) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 18-R.Lewis to NYG 29 for 4 yards (26-B.Breeland).
- (3:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 88-E.Engram to NYG 32 for 3 yards (56-Z.Vigil).
- (2:26) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 18-R.Lewis (26-B.Breeland).
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at NYG 32 for 0 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by NYG-75-J.Halapio at NYG 32. Penalty on NYG-74-E.Flowers, Offensive Holding, declined.
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at NYG 24 for -8 yards (58-J.Galette). FUMBLES (58-J.Galette) [58-J.Galette], recovered by NYG-75-J.Halapio at NYG 19. Penalty on NYG-74-E.Flowers, Offensive Holding, declined.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.90 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.23 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.90 pts |
| Deep post | +0.71 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.62 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.58 pts |
| QB keep | +0.48 pts |
| Play action | +0.35 pts |
| Quick out | +0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.13 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.44 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.51 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -0.99 pts |
| End-around | -1.05 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.09 pts |
| Spike it | -1.23 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.