Packers vs Panthers — Week 15, 2017
The Packers took over trailing 31-24 with 2:40 left, 1st & 10 at their own 48, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Packers 24, Panthers 31. Panthers won 31-24 — the drive turnover.
Packers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. Near midfield, 2:40 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.7% for Packers. Our model starts at 13.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:40) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 82-R.Rodgers to CAR 44 for 8 yards (29-M.Adams).
- (2:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-J.Nelson to CAR 38 for 6 yards (24-J.Bradberry).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 81-G.Allison to CAR 28 for 10 yards (24-J.Bradberry). FUMBLES (24-J.Bradberry), RECOVERED by CAR-29-M.Adams at CAR 28. 29-M.Adams to CAR 28 for no gain (82-R.Rodgers). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.22 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.38 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.22 pts |
| Deep post | +1.08 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.87 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.79 pts |
| QB keep | +0.68 pts |
| Play action | +0.55 pts |
| Quick out | +0.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.32 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.31 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.29 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -1.08 pts |
| End-around | -1.12 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.19 pts |
| Spike it | -1.38 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.