Bills vs Buccaneers — Week 7, 2017
The Bills took over trailing 27-20 with 3:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Bills 30, Buccaneers 27. Bills won 30-27 — the drive scored.
Bills ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 3:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 14.9% for Bills. Our model starts at 9.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left to 10-D.Thompson to TB 31 for 44 yards (36-R.McClain). TB-36-R.McClain was injured during the play. Caught along sideline at TB 36. PENALTY on TB-36-R.McClain, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TB 31.
- (3:04) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 11-Z.Jones to TB 7 for 9 yards (29-R.Smith, 58-K.Alexander). Caught at TB 10, slanting to middle.
- (2:32) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.85 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.08 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.85 pts |
| Deep post | +0.74 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.58 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.53 pts |
| QB keep | +0.45 pts |
| Play action | +0.34 pts |
| Quick out | +0.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.17 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.16 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.16 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.28 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.35 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.40 pts |
| Outside run | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -0.90 pts |
| End-around | -0.94 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.98 pts |
| Spike it | -1.08 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.