Chiefs vs Jets — Week 13, 2017
The Chiefs took over trailing 38-31 with 2:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 31, Jets 38. Jets won 38-31 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Chiefs ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 2:15 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 9.4% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 7.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:15) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 32 for 7 yards (27-D.Roberts).
- (2:11) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 12-A.Wilson to KC 37 for 5 yards (41-B.Skrine).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 87-T.Kelce [92-L.Williams].
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short right to 12-A.Wilson.
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep left to 10-T.Hill to NYJ 23 for 40 yards (26-M.Maye).
- (1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to NYJ 19 for 4 yards (33-Ja.Adams).
- (:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short left to 27-K.Hunt.
- (:54) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 14-D.Robinson (33-Ja.Adams).
- (:49) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 87-T.Kelce.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.85 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.85 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.85 pts |
| Curl route | +0.79 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.54 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.47 pts |
| QB keep | +0.39 pts |
| Play action | +0.33 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.26 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.26 pts |
| Quick out | +0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.16 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.00 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.07 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.21 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.22 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.28 pts |
| Outside run | -0.62 pts |
| End-around | -0.78 pts |
| Inside run | -0.80 pts |
| Spike it | -0.84 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.85 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.