Commanders vs Giants — Week 17, 2017
The Commanders took over trailing 18-10 with 3:11 left, 1st & 10 at their own 27, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 10, Giants 18. Giants won 18-10 — the drive turnover.
Commanders ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 27, 3:11 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 6.0% for Commanders. Our model starts at 7.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:11) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 18-J.Doctson to WAS 31 for 4 yards (37-R.Cockrell).
- (2:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 14-R.Grant INTERCEPTED by 47-K.Sheppard at WAS 34. 47-K.Sheppard to WAS 29 for 5 yards (73-C.Roullier).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.70 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-0.88 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.70 pts |
| Deep post | +0.67 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.47 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.43 pts |
| QB keep | +0.35 pts |
| Play action | +0.27 pts |
| Quick out | +0.16 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.16 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.16 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.21 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.25 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.30 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.31 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.81 pts |
| End-around | -0.82 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.87 pts |
| Spike it | -0.88 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.