Patriots vs Jaguars — Week 20, 2017
The Patriots took over trailing 20-17 with 4:58 left, 1st & 10 at the Jaguars 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
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What really happened
Final: Patriots 24, Jaguars 20. Patriots won 24-20 — the drive scored.
Playoff football. Patriots ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. In Jaguars territory, 4:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 52.9% for Patriots. Our model starts at 51.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:58) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 28-J.White to JAX 15 for 15 yards (99-M.Dareus).
- (4:19) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 80-D.Amendola to JAX 7 for 8 yards (44-M.Jack). JAX-44-M.Jack was injured during the play.
- (3:57) 12-T.Brady up the middle to JAX 5 for 2 yards (51-P.Posluszny, 99-M.Dareus). JAX-99-M.Dareus was injured during the play.
- (3:29) (Shotgun) 28-J.White left guard to JAX 4 for 1 yard (93-C.Campbell).
- (2:56) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 80-D.Amendola for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 22nd career postseason game with 2 pass TD, extends his NFL record (Favre, 15).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.98 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.76 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.98 pts |
| QB keep | +0.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.69 pts |
| Curl route | +0.52 pts |
| Quick out | +0.27 pts |
| Outside run | +0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.15 pts |
| Play action | -0.07 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.10 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.63 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.15 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.75 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.06 pts |
| End-around | -2.24 pts |
| Deep post | -2.91 pts |
| Spike it | -2.93 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.83 pts |
| Field goal | -4.03 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.76 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.